Bahrain: Reform-promise and Reality

The six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are among the world's last true monarchies. The ruler of each state enjoys unparalleled power and other members of his ruling family hold most key positions in the government, as well as enjoying many other privileges. Despite significant steps toward institutionalization and the creation of governments that are frequently responsive, the structure and authority of these monarchical systems remain virtually unchallenged. The debate over democratization— a process that has touched the Middle East the least of all regions of the world—has acquired impetus in the Gulf only recently, quickened by the events of September 11, 2001 and the war in Iraq. The question of the future of liberalization in the GCC states is complicated by the continued legitimacy of the traditional pattern of leadership, as well as by uncertainty over the role that Islamists might play in the process. Developments in Bahrain are particularly illustrative of the promise and the pitfalls of nascent democratization or liberalization in the region. Islamist forces in the country, among both the minority Sunni and majority Shi`i, constitute positive pressure toward liberalization, and increasing the stake of Islamists in the participatory process will have a salutary effect on their commitment to political reform, since they will benefit from it. Limitations on liberalization are the result of pressure from conservatives within the ruling family and its patrons, the rulers of the UAE and Saudi Arabia.